Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: The Outcast vs Spirit Academy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4b93dcee789ddb66c29b2b16408b40fcbe71917cf2096d2ed83535bcb02d7cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof The Outcast, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed The Outcast | 2c | 5,700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed The Outcast | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…e780backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 670$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Spirit Academy | 68c | 601$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.5 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 565.91$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.04 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6963…4eedbacked The Outcast | 30c | 386.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 236.67$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed The Outcast | 40c | 212.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6698…e620backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed The Outcast | 7c | 148.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Spirit Academy | 68c | 114.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Spirit Academy | 17c | 112.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked The Outcast | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed The Outcast | 36c | 61.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed The Outcast | 32c | 56.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Spirit Academy | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3dc…ece8backed Spirit Academy | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit Academy | 75c | 34.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…ed48backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 33.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Spirit Academy | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…1dccbacked The Outcast | 41c | 28.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spirit Academy | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: The Outcast vs Spirit Academy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: The Outcast vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.