Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4cb3da32545ca55eb8e7f453747fb9d68966101d47e6bb8e516af4b6e452575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 39c | 60,000$23,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,549.98 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 54c | 36,259$19,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,746.49 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 74c | 14,981$11,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,895.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 6,066$4,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.73 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked No | 52c | 2,267$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…d188backed No | 51c | 2,010$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…3ce6backed Yes | 48c | 2,010$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 52c | 1,501$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.04 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…615cbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 52c | 356.51$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 53c | 310$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…a465backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 41c | 198.46$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 51c | 196.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 54c | 185.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 51c | 80.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 47c | 76.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8279…7edcbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 60c | 68.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 80c | 62.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…e4ffbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.