Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4e8f5a5cdeb4888aa3d18ef7fd0e82167dcd9beea1d60dfaffd8d5f1d635234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 9c | 2,197$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.64 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,442$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 27c | 725.38$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.71 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 35c | 711.57$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.52 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 560.2$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.12 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 7c | 490.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.17 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 425.89$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 79c | 381.66$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 21c | 245.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 79c | 242.15$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 225$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.67 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 37c | 189.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 11c | 182.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.87 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 27c | 147.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…388cbacked No | 67c | 89.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 46c | 86.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 70.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 48.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…452fbacked Yes | 52c | 47.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 35c | 43.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 42.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 25c | 41.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 74c | 31.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 67c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 68c | 23.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 56c | 18.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.