Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7410dffb840390e3d0ff51ff3cee8666c4f0b1f9e2447ccc709acf7a40fc8586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 310.55$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 29c | 248.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 154.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 151.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 126.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 125.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 121.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 111.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 106.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 101.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 98.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 19c | 87.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 83.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 74.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 25c | 73.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 71.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 35c | 56.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 53.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 77c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 50.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 74c | 40.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 74c | 39.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 36.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 25.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…e6c1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 18.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 17.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 79c | 17.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.