World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc532599c0f07a8893d9000b0b029eca66e9219b56ecd73987290e9ed88a437bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 364.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 303.01$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 13c | 173.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…7521backed Yes | 80c | 125.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 42c | 115.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 41c | 94.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed No | 74c | 82.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 74.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 53.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 41c | 30.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.