NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc59700061cbcce64e02aea7c6889e45f861bc2a05bc0ad9b801fb5a5f970b4ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Sabres, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Rangers | 2c | 5,671$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | +29.4wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Rangers | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Sabres | 30c | 1,144$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.98 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sabres | 30c | 517.7$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.39 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sabres | 30c | 290.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.49 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Sabres | 68c | 232.54$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Rangers | 61c | 190.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rangers | 69c | 178.04$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 31c | 156$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Rangers | 18c | 140.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Rangers | 69c | 129$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Rangers | 69c | 124$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Sabres | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Sabres | 78c | 92.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Rangers | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rangers | 68c | 81.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sabres | 39c | 80.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Sabres | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Rangers | 70c | 58.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…69fdbacked Sabres | 78c | 54.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Sabres | 33c | 47.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sabres | 31c | 41.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Sabres | 31c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rangers | 70c | 29.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Rangers | 69c | 25.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Rangers | 67c | 14.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. RangersSabres won
- Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.