Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5f90545316528d544041d1df43957dcfdd8aaf560c7873dc0c21852c20381a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 40c | 20,000$7,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,002.39 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 60c | 19,759$11,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,855.5 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Yes | 63c | 1,709$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.26 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 1,406$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.99 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 61c | 1,095$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.45 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 37c | 848.8$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.72 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 62c | 747.25$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.85 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 625.34$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.87 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Yes | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 62c | 321.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 48c | 203.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 39c | 149.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 32c | 114$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 63c | 79.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…617bbacked No | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…2224backed Yes | 63c | 52.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 37c | 45.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 151 | 62.3%94 W · 57 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 49c | 38.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 43c | 25.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 152 | 26.3%40 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…dc60backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…bd05backed Yes | 45c | 22.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 57c | 21.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 87 | 82.8%72 W · 15 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 58c | 20.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bb…82edbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Aarhus GF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold end in a draw?No won
- Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.