MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc79dc7966b76487ff3517a8f1a47f495fff6d1d8837c8901f66de9a155821b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7239…6591backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 10,338$4,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,479.14 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 6,811$3,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,609.83 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 16c | 1,993$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.1 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 11c | 1,438$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 1,140$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.72 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 17c | 931.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.37 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…7f5abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 500$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 255$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 104.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 93.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eff…531fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.