NFL · resolved market
Will the Chargers and Cardinals combine for 45 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7c38fd29e3bed68ca59f6c53bfc84db9cd8727b066dd1b630a4b1e09aa69258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Over | 50c | 3,333$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Under | 50c | 3,251$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.4 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Under | 54c | 649.07$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.07 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Over | 46c | 560.61$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.88 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…d2c2backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd446…a194backed Under | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0da…71e3backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…d5c1backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…2677backed Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…1d7abacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.