Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e84e2d6b5b0eb763011d124cda53af5dcf21414ee21745d76e1f0a1382db61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Carstensz, WinteR SquadronS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked WinteR SquadronS | 35c | 1,329$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.1 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Carstensz | 61c | 798.09$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.45 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked WinteR SquadronS | 30c | 785$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.25 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…9ed6backed Carstensz | 62c | 758.87$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…8440backed Carstensz | 61c | 631.18$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.51 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed WinteR SquadronS | 61c | 408.59$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…04e2backed Carstensz | 70c | 278.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed WinteR SquadronS | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Carstensz | 67c | 170.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Carstensz | 57c | 129.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…7560backed Carstensz | 67c | 129.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…debfbacked WinteR SquadronS | 41c | 100.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Carstensz | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Carstensz | 53c | 87.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed WinteR SquadronS | 36c | 70.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked WinteR SquadronS | 45c | 67.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed WinteR SquadronS | 30c | 65.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked WinteR SquadronS | 28c | 42.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Carstensz | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Carstensz | 67c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Carstensz | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 1 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.