Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-20.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc80714a8f9a000216001e4ccfb85e7ba437d39ebcbbd6e5448e60b7e4f730379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno State Bulldogsof Utah State Aggies, Fresno State Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Utah State Aggies | 47c | 5,809$2,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,757.03 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 52c | 4,928$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.87 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 53c | 3,749$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.26 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Utah State Aggies | 50c | 1,857$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.73 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Utah State Aggies | 49c | 1,033$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.25 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 90.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 53c | 58.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Utah State Aggies | 49c | 57.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Utah State Aggies | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Utah State Aggies | 48c | 29.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-20.5)this page
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State AggiesUtah State Aggies won
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies: O/U 154.5Over won
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-19.5)Fresno State Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.