Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies: O/U 154.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb5233c3af3401794cc6343942d645a98a3c4ec6e044f203b49e8a8b11686d36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 53c | 39,589$20,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,982.41 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 47c | 30,000$14,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,937.79 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Under | 53c | 11,006$5,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,878.01 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 7,389$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,949 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Over | 47c | 6,383$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,383.05 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 4,140$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.2 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.99 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 46c | 3,261$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.87 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Over | 47c | 3,225$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.51 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 54c | 2,072$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.78 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 55c | 1,028$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.41 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 45c | 1,001$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.96 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Under | 56c | 740.17$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.5 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Under | 55c | 727$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.85 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 44c | 699.98$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.99 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 486$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.44 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 47c | 450.44$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.5 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 426$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 47c | 419.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.29 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed Over | 46c | 388.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed Under | 56c | 359.29$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 54c | 175.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed Over | 46c | 128.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Over | 47c | 107.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 47c | 67.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 54c | 64.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…6974backed Under | 55c | 62.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…515fbacked Under | 55c | 35.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…7f42backed Under | 57c | 32.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…a0dabacked Over | 44c | 30.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 47c | 30.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 227 | 30.4%69 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…8c61backed Over | 44c | 29.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Under | 55c | 28.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d94…bceebacked Under | 57c | 27.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…ff05backed Over | 46c | 25.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Over | 46c | 23.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies: O/U 154.5this page
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State AggiesUtah State Aggies won
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-19.5)Fresno State Bulldogs won
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-20.5)Fresno State Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.