Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Winter Bear - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc83a60f9ea4c97163d7ca45d2d62dc5669f27a29752b7dd0f1a5e517f0006691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Winter Bearof VP.Prodigy, Winter Bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,861 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4235…69cbbacked Winter Bear | 39c | 550$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…2a20backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 550$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…81f2backed Winter Bear | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…a23ebacked VP.Prodigy | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 391.14$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Winter Bear | 47c | 280.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.54 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed VP.Prodigy | 70c | 143.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Winter Bear | 30c | 122.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Winter Bear | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Winter Bear | 54c | 79.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Winter Bear | 38c | 39.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf185…2ab4backed Winter Bear | 44c | 33.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Winter Bear | 38c | 31.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…19eebacked VP.Prodigy | 57c | 20.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Winter Bear | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Winter Bear - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Winter Bear (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Winter Bear - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.