Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Winter Bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x958b5537ccee3ff1e5f726b1f037233a03b7c80b90c0dc89aa6a1e5fa2dd7a27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, Winter Bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,488 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked VP.Prodigy | 69c | 1,007$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.3 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Winter Bear | 35c | 722.66$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.59 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Winter Bear | 15c | 651.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…62aabacked Winter Bear | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…c3b9backed VP.Prodigy | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Winter Bear | 30c | 434$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed VP.Prodigy | 70c | 400$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…3c94backed Winter Bear | 30c | 356.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Winter Bear | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Winter Bear | 7c | 321.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…50c4backed Winter Bear | 35c | 269$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…7609backed Winter Bear | 35c | 248$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…9c62backed Winter Bear | 35c | 245$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…746ebacked Winter Bear | 35c | 242$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab11…2b8fbacked Winter Bear | 35c | 240$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff3…07c3backed Winter Bear | 35c | 236$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Winter Bear | 8c | 227.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…34febacked Winter Bear | 35c | 183$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Winter Bear | 30c | 167.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db9…0e57backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 159$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked VP.Prodigy | 51c | 152.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab4…f0e4backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 145$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…60c1backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 142$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Winter Bear | 36c | 139.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d89…fe51backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 139$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf897…d3bbbacked Winter Bear | 19c | 137.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…461abacked VP.Prodigy | 65c | 137$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Winter Bear | 32c | 135$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Winter Bear | 11c | 134.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…8688backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 134$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…edd5backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…68e7backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 127$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…a461backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 126$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…8a31backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 126$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Winter Bear | 31c | 121.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Winter Bear | 31c | 117.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…a347backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 116$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked VP.Prodigy | 66c | 112.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…5510backed Winter Bear | 34c | 110.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…8afbbacked VP.Prodigy | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f59…3a50backed VP.Prodigy | 47c | 105.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Winter Bear | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Winter Bear | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…d463backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Winter Bear | 32c | 86.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 86.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Winter Bear | 34c | 77.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 70.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…41e9backed Winter Bear | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked VP.Prodigy | 52c | 67.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Winter Bear | 31c | 67.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed VP.Prodigy | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked VP.Prodigy | 66c | 60.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Winter Bear | 22c | 58.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5dab…f602backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 55.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Winter Bear | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd6…b4ffbacked VP.Prodigy | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Winter Bear | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 42.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e7…c9eabacked VP.Prodigy | 75c | 40.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked VP.Prodigy | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…7239backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Winter Bear | 38c | 31.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…4923backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 28.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Winter Bear | 40c | 27.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Winter Bear | 57c | 22.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…7767backed VP.Prodigy | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked VP.Prodigy | 78c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…e6e0backed VP.Prodigy | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Winter Bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Winter Bear - Game 1 WinnerWinter Bear won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Winter Bear - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.