Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88626c08a8cc42d3e8fd537f00750f8f3274452a82ea5bd021ff687a3926161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 51c | 852.24$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 725.37$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.43 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 55c | 197.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 50c | 138.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 112.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 52c | 63.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 45.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…b5bbbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 51c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 39.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 33.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 49c | 23.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…e410backed Over | 57c | 22.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.