Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Martina Trevisan vs Darja Vidmanova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8906cc4d1306a35246b8c09aefbb92c60c9279a80c3b748ede58002429ab8ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darja Vidmanovaof Martina Trevisan, Darja Vidmanova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a21…e7f0backed Martina Trevisan | 19c | 6,518$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.72 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed Martina Trevisan | 13c | 1,576$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Martina Trevisan | 13c | 1,250$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.25 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Martina Trevisan | 21c | 955.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,853 | 48.4%897 W · 956 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Martina Trevisan | 21c | 875.27$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Darja Vidmanova | 79c | 732.65$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Darja Vidmanova | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Darja Vidmanova | 77c | 388.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Darja Vidmanova | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 196 | 53.6%105 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Martina Trevisan | 12c | 344.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Martina Trevisan | 22c | 342$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Martina Trevisan | 15c | 258.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Darja Vidmanova | 78c | 257.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 855 | 68.3%584 W · 271 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Darja Vidmanova | 79c | 249.73$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 219 | 59.4%130 W · 89 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Martina Trevisan | 16c | 206$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Martina Trevisan | 25c | 203.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Darja Vidmanova | 79c | 151$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Martina Trevisan | 19c | 142.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Martina Trevisan | 22c | 136$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Martina Trevisan | 22c | 135.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Martina Trevisan | 10c | 118$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 444 | 29.7%132 W · 312 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Martina Trevisan | 19c | 113.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Martina Trevisan | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 139 | 23.7%33 W · 106 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Martina Trevisan | 23c | 89.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Darja Vidmanova | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Martina Trevisan | 23c | 62.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Martina Trevisan | 23c | 57.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Martina Trevisan | 21c | 52.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Darja Vidmanova | 77c | 39.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Darja Vidmanova | 78c | 37.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,832 | 53%971 W · 861 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Darja Vidmanova | 79c | 30.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Darja Vidmanova | 77c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Darja Vidmanova | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 127 | 65.4%83 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…e2a2backed Darja Vidmanova | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 197 | 62.9%124 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.