CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Just Swing (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8fd223ad06dcb479df3d8ea56c8c14eb28e85b4d6e6263380ce5db8b9c6e293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alter Egoof Alter Ego, Just Swing
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,468 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c6…6daabacked Just Swing | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Just Swing | 20c | 1,172$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.09 | 162 | 35.8%58 W · 104 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Just Swing | 18c | 1,007$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Just Swing | 21c | 853.28$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.61 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…9427backed Just Swing | 18c | 759$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +79%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Just Swing | 19c | 747.51$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…5829backed Just Swing | 18c | 653$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 19cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…652ebacked Just Swing | 18c | 649$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…fcfebacked Alter Ego | 80c | 630.81$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.55 | 149 | 71.8%107 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…d21fbacked Just Swing | 18c | 528$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…3a96backed Alter Ego | 79c | 476.73$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Just Swing | 6c | 438.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…e913backed Just Swing | 18c | 431$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…c1bcbacked Just Swing | 18c | 430$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Alter Ego | 79c | 369.73$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Just Swing | 19c | 360.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Just Swing | 18c | 302.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Alter Ego | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 512 | 52.3%268 W · 244 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Just Swing | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Just Swing | 18c | 144.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…9fe6backed Just Swing | 13c | 130.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Just Swing | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Just Swing | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Alter Ego | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…b86ebacked Just Swing | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…7858backed Just Swing | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Just Swing | 18c | 94.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…56dbbacked Alter Ego | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…4ccfbacked Alter Ego | 79c | 20.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Just Swing (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Just Swing - Map 2 WinnerAlter Ego won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.