College Football · resolved market
Michigan vs. Maryland Terrapins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9c5b3fcd64b2795abd56debe51752865c4e13e3ed25c36438db3214aec45e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michiganof Michigan, Maryland Terrapins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Maryland Terrapins | 17c | 6,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Maryland Terrapins | 18c | 3,330$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.38 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Maryland Terrapins | 26c | 1,869$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.48 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michigan | 73c | 1,859$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.06 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Michigan | 78c | 1,406$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.73 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Maryland Terrapins | 16c | 1,398$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.61 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Maryland Terrapins | 28c | 1,311$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.05 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maryland Terrapins | 21c | 1,274$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.9 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Maryland Terrapins | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Michigan | 80c | 1,182$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.62 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Maryland Terrapins | 7c | 1,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Maryland Terrapins | 16c | 993.29$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.93 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Maryland Terrapins | 16c | 854.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Maryland Terrapins | 16c | 809.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Maryland Terrapins | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Maryland Terrapins | 17c | 456.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed Maryland Terrapins | 26c | 303.15$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Maryland Terrapins | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Michigan | 75c | 299.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Maryland Terrapins | 6c | 280$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Maryland Terrapins | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Maryland Terrapins | 15c | 225$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Maryland Terrapins | 17c | 149.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…622ebacked Michigan | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…187dbacked Michigan | 77c | 129.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Maryland Terrapins | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8f…3186backed Maryland Terrapins | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…0daabacked Maryland Terrapins | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Maryland Terrapins | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Michigan | 77c | 69.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Maryland Terrapins | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…dbe3backed Michigan | 73c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan vs. Maryland Terrapinsthis page
- Michigan vs. Maryland Terrapins: O/U 46.5Over won
- O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan (-13.5)Michigan won
- Spread: Michigan (-14.5)Michigan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.