Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca0f97c22ff72fc7042e5760a138c51bf0a6266b8d155e3b8a8d3c79d7c102c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof MODUS, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Inner Circle | 58c | 1,100$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.99 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 42c | 968.24$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.66 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Inner Circle | 68c | 537.85$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Inner Circle | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked MODUS | 42c | 170.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…abbbbacked Inner Circle | 65c | 153.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed MODUS | 33c | 151.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Inner Circle | 68c | 138.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked MODUS | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 41c | 111.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle | 70c | 99.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed MODUS | 36c | 96.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Inner Circle | 66c | 89.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked MODUS | 28c | 87.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Inner Circle | 63c | 86.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 44c | 84.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed MODUS | 32c | 83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21e0…369dbacked MODUS | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed MODUS | 28c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Inner Circle | 58c | 61.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Inner Circle | 60c | 43.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MODUS | 31c | 43.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked MODUS | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…207cbacked MODUS | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked MODUS | 40c | 37.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MODUS | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6161…c834backed MODUS | 43c | 31.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed MODUS | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Inner Circle | 67c | 30.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…7658backed Inner Circle | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed MODUS | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdf…fdc1backed MODUS | 47c | 22.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Inner Circle | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsMODUS won
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.