MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca1b0d01ba9b8db6270a4ee239dc405253ab53e0425e83538e0fde9177ff69e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- White Soxof Marlins, White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked White Sox | 45c | 3,625$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.87 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 54c | 2,560$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.62 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed White Sox | 54c | 2,225$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.37 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Marlins | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked White Sox | 43c | 1,491$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ba…0627backed Marlins | 53c | 1,423$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 45c | 1,375$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.84 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Marlins | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 52c | 690$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed White Sox | 46c | 653.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 56c | 619.58$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.96 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Marlins | 54c | 455.38$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.91 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Marlins | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Marlins | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marlins | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Marlins | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked White Sox | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed White Sox | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked White Sox | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Marlins | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed White Sox | 48c | 139.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 36c | 123.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed White Sox | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Marlins | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked White Sox | 53c | 75.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…a726backed White Sox | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked White Sox | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed White Sox | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3d1bbacked Marlins | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked White Sox | 43c | 49.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Marlins | 54c | 47.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…75f7backed White Sox | 44c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…3be3backed Marlins | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed White Sox | 44c | 33.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Marlins | 51c | 33.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 544 | 41.2%224 W · 320 L | -22.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…f53bbacked White Sox | 51c | 33.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Marlins | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…b229backed Marlins | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…5468backed Marlins | 46c | 22.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Marlins | 55c | 18.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.