World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaa4d7510129db385fef55f0432409f2ee132b17283d771678c566e7ab29ad27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 426.82$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.12 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 348.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.73 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 13c | 256.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 195.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 62c | 187.1$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed No | 63c | 159.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 130.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 69c | 126.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 42c | 101.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 34c | 88.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 66c | 58.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 58.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 50c | 57.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 47.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 36c | 42.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 57c | 41.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…6a1fbacked Yes | 51c | 39.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 33.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 45c | 30.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 28.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 44c | 28.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694e…d4a5backed Yes | 75c | 24.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…14fabacked Yes | 53c | 21.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 19.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…44cbbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 68c | 17.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 62c | 16.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.