CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb7430120a144ff98622adfcfc3ac83967d8e49bf6ca7039528f8175c472b594
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof HOTU, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked HOTU | 6c | 3,132$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.63 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…decabacked fnatic | 58c | 2,858$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.85 | 195 | 29.2%57 W · 138 L | -11.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked HOTU | 18c | 898.64$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed HOTU | 49c | 821.31$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.89 | 2,092 | 41.6%871 W · 1,221 L | -50.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed HOTU | 40c | 782$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.8 | 618 | 34.6%214 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed HOTU | 24c | 631.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 573 | 58.8%337 W · 236 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked HOTU | 52c | 629.4$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.14 | 1,523 | 51.5%785 W · 738 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…6001backed fnatic | 60c | 615.8$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.77 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked fnatic | 48c | 556.69$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.8 | 949 | 45.8%435 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…fcccbacked HOTU | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 44.1%90 W · 114 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked HOTU | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 265 | 46.8%124 W · 141 L | -18.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked HOTU | 10c | 470$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 244 | 47.1%115 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed HOTU | 16c | 273.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 270 | 37.8%102 W · 168 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked HOTU | 53c | 262.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 361 | 45.4%164 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed fnatic | 55c | 250.33$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.03 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed HOTU | 50c | 249.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 405 | 58.8%238 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked fnatic | 60c | 236.94$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf490…63afbacked HOTU | 14c | 205.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked HOTU | 56c | 204.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 419 | 50.1%210 W · 209 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294e…4982backed HOTU | 54c | 192.87$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed HOTU | 9c | 183$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…79d7backed fnatic | 60c | 166.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked HOTU | 18c | 164$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 215 | 36.3%78 W · 137 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked HOTU | 13c | 142.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed fnatic | 77c | 135.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 358 | 48%172 W · 186 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed fnatic | 57c | 110.83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…f758backed fnatic | 50c | 109.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked HOTU | 29c | 104.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed HOTU | 13c | 103.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…78e2backed fnatic | 77c | 102$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed HOTU | 54c | 98.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 562 | 39.5%222 W · 340 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…1523backed fnatic | 53c | 94.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed HOTU | 21c | 93.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 702 | 42.2%296 W · 406 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed fnatic | 46c | 93.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 425 | 38.6%164 W · 261 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed HOTU | 28c | 72.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed fnatic | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed HOTU | 39c | 66.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked HOTU | 29c | 59.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked fnatic | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…c3a8backed fnatic | 60c | 51.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 319 | 73.7%235 W · 84 L | +23.6wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…859cbacked fnatic | 61c | 49.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…024bbacked fnatic | 51c | 27.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…7069backed HOTU | 55c | 27.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 67.9%133 W · 63 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked HOTU | 45c | 23.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked HOTU | 54c | 21.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked fnatic | 50c | 19.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Playoffsfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 1 Winnerfnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.