CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Playoffs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc42859c3d056562c6e8fd05c8408fb0f71188de8876992f0a69693ca78f84079

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: fnaticof HOTU, fnatic
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,887 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7b59…dd43backed HOTU	2c	2,566$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.91	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed HOTU	55c	2,044$1,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,122.87	359	53.2%191 W · 168 L	+14.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd0…4a43backed HOTU	53c	1,851$981 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.21	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked fnatic	48c	1,419$678 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$740.87	365	40%146 W · 219 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed fnatic	42c	1,120$474 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$646.22	1,041	53.1%553 W · 488 L	+63.4wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed HOTU	63c	999.97$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.98	405	58.8%238 W · 167 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed HOTU	33c	867.69$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.98	6,501	42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L	-79.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed HOTU	1c	744.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	1,121	42.5%476 W · 645 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed fnatic	37c	651.98$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.75	1,423	33.6%478 W · 945 L	+41.8wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked fnatic	53c	604.51$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.88	3,267	45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L	-85.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed HOTU	59c	602.57$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.41	385	57.1%220 W · 165 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75c7…fcccbacked HOTU	31c	499.99$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	204	44.1%90 W · 114 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed fnatic	54c	438.15$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.7	261	47.1%123 W · 138 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed fnatic	47c	429.55$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.55	1,178	54.5%642 W · 536 L	-36.7wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked fnatic	55c	390.54$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.77	1,790	59.2%1,060 W · 730 L	+106.1wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed fnatic	38c	379.97$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.58	1,325	44.1%584 W · 741 L	+44.1wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed HOTU	25c	355.02$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.96	1,431	39%558 W · 873 L	-41.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-29%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed HOTU	46c	350$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.83	271	56.1%152 W · 119 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed fnatic	44c	342.12$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.56	4,099	51%2,091 W · 2,008 L	+74.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2176…b83dbacked HOTU	54c	325.96$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.02	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0d5…9727backed HOTU	46c	284.3$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	174	38.5%67 W · 107 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e88…76c6backed fnatic	71c	281.91$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.9	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked fnatic	54c	270.38$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.44	124	43.5%54 W · 70 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6712…a95bbacked HOTU	30c	250$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	139	38.1%53 W · 86 L	-11.3wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-19%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked HOTU	19c	230.79$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.6	2,397	42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42cd…2359backed fnatic	45c	222.89$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.89	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed HOTU	45c	219.98$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.29	1,489	58%863 W · 626 L	+65.4wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed fnatic	79c	219.9$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.18	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked fnatic	55c	210.39$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.14	1,513	57.2%865 W · 648 L	+65.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1fe…e21fbacked HOTU	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	127	48.8%62 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed fnatic	46c	192.64$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.97	242	60.3%146 W · 96 L	+13.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7e0…8573backed fnatic	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	79	50.6%40 W · 39 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed HOTU	54c	170$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.8	562	39.5%222 W · 340 L	-21.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked HOTU	15c	164.48$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	630	38.6%243 W · 387 L	-26.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked HOTU	10c	157.94$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	3,544	29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L	-289.1wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed fnatic	75c	154.97$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.74	92	50%46 W · 46 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa5…4859backed fnatic	54c	146.3$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.3	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+5.2wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+26%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked HOTU	26c	142.87$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.86	5,034	37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L	-260.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked fnatic	68c	140.63$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.37	1,393	65.9%918 W · 475 L	+26.8wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed8…7559backed fnatic	44c	133.33$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.68	221	50.2%111 W · 110 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked fnatic	72c	130.51$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	1,890	41.9%791 W · 1,099 L	-71.8wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed fnatic	73c	128.17$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.47	1,649	46.9%774 W · 875 L	-28.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed fnatic	73c	122.1$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.59	2,365	45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L	-58.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed fnatic	38c	120$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.4	807	40.3%325 W · 482 L	-3.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed fnatic	39c	119.41$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.25	277	48.7%135 W · 142 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked HOTU	30c	111.41$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.07	4,754	43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L	-85.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed fnatic	75c	109.77$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.75	270	37.8%102 W · 168 L	-9.8wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked HOTU	47c	102.11$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	2,143	47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L	-61.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed fnatic	42c	99.99$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.99	370	50.5%187 W · 183 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed fnatic	53c	98.11$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.11	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05e…04cebacked HOTU	56c	97.13$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.53	193	59.1%114 W · 79 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed HOTU	29c	92.17$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	229	42.8%98 W · 131 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed fnatic	74c	90.95$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.95	225	55.6%125 W · 100 L	-11.4wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed fnatic	65c	89.84$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.57	406	66.3%269 W · 137 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed fnatic	74c	89.77$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.14	754	38.9%293 W · 461 L	-38.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…348dbacked fnatic	45c	82.51$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.51	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+123%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked HOTU	19c	81.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	215	36.3%78 W · 137 L	-11.8wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x180a…bd66backed HOTU	63c	79.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	163	55.2%90 W · 73 L	-8.3wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c45…7069backed HOTU	63c	79.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	196	67.9%133 W · 63 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52cd…85fbbacked HOTU	32c	77.63$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	369	42%155 W · 214 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe432…934abacked HOTU	25c	76$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+22%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa02…8b07backed fnatic	69c	72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	498	66.9%333 W · 165 L	+16.1wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed fnatic	46c	70$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	355	45.1%160 W · 195 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked fnatic	45c	69.91$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.23	826	46.2%382 W · 444 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed fnatic	53c	68.67$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.27	114	53.5%61 W · 53 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd9…8593backed fnatic	45c	66.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.42	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb997…faacbacked HOTU	26c	53.22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	205	53.2%109 W · 96 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3146…d153backed fnatic	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…71c9backed HOTU	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked fnatic	40c	49.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.44	109	47.7%52 W · 57 L	+9.4wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31c0…718fbacked HOTU	26c	49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcce…c920backed HOTU	59c	45.89$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	180	62.2%112 W · 68 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked fnatic	63c	44.05$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.13	138	71%98 W · 40 L	+13.7wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+12%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x663e…9cf0backed fnatic	55c	42.88$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.17	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4dc2…698abacked fnatic	77c	39.12$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.12	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed fnatic	58c	36.08$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.13	773	46.1%356 W · 417 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe676…aeaabacked HOTU	61c	32.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	66.7%38 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked HOTU	36c	32.48$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.57	597	3%18 W · 579 L	-221.0wins	-0.37per pick	40cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	11-0.36 edge/pick
0x497e…a18abacked HOTU	62c	32.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed fnatic	41c	27.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.54	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd58e…f758backed fnatic	73c	26.01$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.02	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked fnatic	70c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.57	2,195	43.1%946 W · 1,249 L	-68.8wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Playoffsthis page
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 1 Winnerfnatic won
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Playoffs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event