Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbc4edca8160723589e7404ae8e32a48b2afbe53dde3a864ff456da746f0a304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 1,675$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,130$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 644.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 419.41$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 327.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 281.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 15c | 240.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 170.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 125.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 80c | 123.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 114.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 110.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 17c | 100.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 75c | 97.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 19c | 91.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…9068backed Yes | 36c | 82.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 20c | 80.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 22c | 73.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 65.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 64.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 61.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 57.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 32c | 49.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 80c | 46.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 80c | 34.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 33.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 78c | 24.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 80c | 23.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 78c | 22.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…3450backed No | 78c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked No | 79c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 74c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.