Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e3e44488e8e4fa461974a80e126f0d26b6e94f71a9e40ad1bbe072d692eba01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 1,095$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 561.67$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 78c | 520.28$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 30c | 434.41$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.72 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 54c | 409.35$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.57 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 323.73$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.37 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 298.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 61c | 214.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 10c | 203.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 52c | 183.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 176.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 65c | 135.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 72c | 134.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 122.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 24c | 118.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 37c | 112.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 51c | 112.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 101.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 58c | 90.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 13c | 89.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 18c | 78.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 56c | 71.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 27c | 69.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 56c | 66.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 64.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 19c | 63.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 37c | 62.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 56.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 36c | 53.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…9068backed Yes | 49c | 53.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 49.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 48.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 31c | 47.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 46.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed No | 54c | 44.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 43c | 44.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 74c | 40.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 61c | 31.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 57c | 31.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 67c | 29.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed Yes | 40c | 29.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 67c | 28.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 51c | 26.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 80c | 26.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 57c | 26.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 56c | 21.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…4d0bbacked Yes | 56c | 21.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 64c | 19.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 17.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 79c | 16.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 72c | 15.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 77c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f48…9cfcbacked No | 79c | 13.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 13.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.