Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbc5ec97de6465a83dc32fa36930eb76379ac33d908bdb690cb2e919eb89fb8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cloud Dawningof WinteR SquadronS, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Cloud Dawning | 38c | 1,436$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.38 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…0e07backed WinteR SquadronS | 6c | 1,339$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked Cloud Dawning | 52c | 741.81$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked WinteR SquadronS | 22c | 721.75$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked WinteR SquadronS | 57c | 699.63$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.99 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed WinteR SquadronS | 52c | 563.22$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.48 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Cloud Dawning | 51c | 423.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.52 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Cloud Dawning | 41c | 381.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.45 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked WinteR SquadronS | 48c | 363.3$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.38 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked WinteR SquadronS | 45c | 361.89$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked WinteR SquadronS | 62c | 291.69$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Cloud Dawning | 47c | 259.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…f70cbacked WinteR SquadronS | 61c | 183.3$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11cc…4817backed WinteR SquadronS | 60c | 161.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Cloud Dawning | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…b7aebacked WinteR SquadronS | 75c | 131.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked WinteR SquadronS | 66c | 124.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Cloud Dawning | 36c | 120.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cloud Dawning | 74c | 117.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed WinteR SquadronS | 48c | 94.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed WinteR SquadronS | 48c | 94.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Cloud Dawning | 28c | 94.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed WinteR SquadronS | 57c | 78.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Cloud Dawning | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Cloud Dawning | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef8…a126backed WinteR SquadronS | 69c | 52.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…d0fdbacked WinteR SquadronS | 58c | 50.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed Cloud Dawning | 54c | 50.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4898…a723backed WinteR SquadronS | 53c | 50.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Cloud Dawning | 32c | 46.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…52eabacked WinteR SquadronS | 58c | 45.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked WinteR SquadronS | 54c | 44.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked WinteR SquadronS | 51c | 41.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked WinteR SquadronS | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed WinteR SquadronS | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Cloud Dawning | 71c | 34.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed WinteR SquadronS | 57c | 29.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed WinteR SquadronS | 66c | 28.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041d…22f8backed WinteR SquadronS | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed WinteR SquadronS | 51c | 21.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 WinnerCloud Dawning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.