Fifa International · resolved market
Will Indonesia win on 2025-09-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc0adc5b0ca0306cf7bc120fd10554a744c2c4089478e747d20a899bbb72914e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 60c | 1,267$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.98 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 856$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.26 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 40c | 716.48$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 31c | 159.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…3748backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 41c | 141.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 61c | 141.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…7f73backed Yes | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Yes | 63c | 101.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 37c | 101.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 59c | 33.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 41c | 31.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f96…d620backed Yes | 60c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…f1fbbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Indonesia win on 2025-09-08?this page
- Will Indonesia vs. Lebanon end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Lebanon win on 2025-09-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.