Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State Bobcats vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 154.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc5fc817c509fbdfb4170bd333f12390ed451677144d0afabe64d0fcc10fadee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 54c | 6,958$3,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,757.27 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Over | 49c | 6,100$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 46c | 5,020$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710.94 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,931$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 55c | 1,455$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 53c | 1,113$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.89 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 46c | 910$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.4 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 703.16$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.74 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 46c | 271.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 206$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 166.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 116.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 55c | 102.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 46c | 84.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 55c | 78.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 46c | 53.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 48c | 44.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9d9dbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Under | 55c | 26.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 154.5this page
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Sacramento State HornetsSacramento State Hornets won
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 155.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.