TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Montana State Bobcats vs. Sacramento State Hornets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sacramento State Hornetsof Montana State Bobcats, Sacramento State Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,832 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Montana State Bobcats66c36,282$23,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,94689645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Sacramento State Hornets34c20,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,20013649.3%67 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sacramento State Hornets48c9,073$4,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,719.45,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Sacramento State Hornets34c7,397$2,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,881.841,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Sacramento State Hornets34c4,997$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,298.021,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Sacramento State Hornets49c4,695$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,375.151,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Montana State Bobcats38c3,223$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.192,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Sacramento State Hornets34c3,200$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,11214647.9%70 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Sacramento State Hornets50c3,082$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5374544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Montana State Bobcats47c2,736$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.841,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Montana State Bobcats50c2,705$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.11,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Montana State Bobcats50c2,013$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.22,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Montana State Bobcats70c1,977$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.742,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Montana State Bobcats56c1,618$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.6446446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Montana State Bobcats45c1,592$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.493,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Montana State Bobcats55c1,010$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.182,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Montana State Bobcats41c917.6$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.751,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Sacramento State Hornets54c877.99$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.932,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sacramento State Hornets77c809.98$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.811,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Montana State Bobcats70c742.48$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.2119057.4%109 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Sacramento State Hornets29c706.33$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.691,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d53…3ad0backed Sacramento State Hornets70c705.29$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.842343.5%10 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-32.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Sacramento State Hornets44c681.61$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.523,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Montana State Bobcats54c678.73$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.0943450%217 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec06…9d24backed Montana State Bobcats60c664.85$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Montana State Bobcats46c629$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.272248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Sacramento State Hornets47c567.4$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.4394036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Sacramento State Hornets49c501.91$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.2899848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Montana State Bobcats53c444.66$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4336942.3%156 W · 213 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Montana State Bobcats66c394$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.0491848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Montana State Bobcats31c390$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12125325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Montana State Bobcats10c345.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.153993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Montana State Bobcats44c307$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.927844.9%35 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Sacramento State Hornets34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19826740.8%109 W · 158 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Montana State Bobcats68c295.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20045351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Sacramento State Hornets32c264.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.4366831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Sacramento State Hornets46c205$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.744146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Montana State Bobcats44c154.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.543,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabeb…de8ebacked Montana State Bobcats67c149$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick60cpaid-69.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Montana State Bobcats36c147.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5319237%71 W · 121 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Montana State Bobcats62c133$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8339742.8%170 W · 227 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Montana State Bobcats38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5036535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Montana State Bobcats68c118.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8113456.7%76 W · 58 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Montana State Bobcats52c115.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sacramento State Hornets34c115.15$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Sacramento State Hornets33c114$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.362,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sacramento State Hornets65c111.78$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.651,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Montana State Bobcats40c102.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.862748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Sacramento State Hornets47c101.65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8810126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9bd…8469backed Montana State Bobcats66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Montana State Bobcats41c99.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.371,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Sacramento State Hornets34c91.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4458345.5%265 W · 318 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Montana State Bobcats66c91.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.444,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Montana State Bobcats23c87.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017647.2%83 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Montana State Bobcats51c73.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.738140.7%33 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7280…fbd1backed Sacramento State Hornets50c68.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.441338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Sacramento State Hornets42c56.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6722953.7%123 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31db…c25fbacked Sacramento State Hornets80c54.16$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.832070%14 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb0…466fbacked Montana State Bobcats44c53.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.389134.1%31 W · 60 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Montana State Bobcats56c48.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.261,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f6…b90cbacked Sacramento State Hornets31c42.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Sacramento State Hornets34c40.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.732,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x584d…d358backed Montana State Bobcats67c34.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.449264.1%59 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d4…5607backed Sacramento State Hornets59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.98737.9%33 W · 54 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99fb…210ebacked Montana State Bobcats48c33.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7460%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Sacramento State Hornets51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6431666.1%209 W · 107 L+24.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Montana State Bobcats60c25.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4525239.3%99 W · 153 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.