Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State Bobcats vs. Sacramento State Hornets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85b543039c41d99cd211858979e50817497f508c7941a44f068dda74e0773d44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sacramento State Hornetsof Montana State Bobcats, Sacramento State Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 66c | 36,282$23,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,946 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Sacramento State Hornets | 34c | 20,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,200 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 48c | 9,073$4,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,719.4 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Sacramento State Hornets | 34c | 7,397$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,881.84 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 34c | 4,997$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.02 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 49c | 4,695$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.15 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Montana State Bobcats | 38c | 3,223$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.19 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Sacramento State Hornets | 34c | 3,200$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 50c | 3,082$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 2,736$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.84 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 2,705$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.1 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Montana State Bobcats | 50c | 2,013$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.2 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Montana State Bobcats | 70c | 1,977$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.74 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Montana State Bobcats | 56c | 1,618$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.64 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Montana State Bobcats | 45c | 1,592$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.49 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Montana State Bobcats | 55c | 1,010$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.18 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 41c | 917.6$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.75 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sacramento State Hornets | 54c | 877.99$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.93 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 77c | 809.98$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.81 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Montana State Bobcats | 70c | 742.48$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.21 | 190 | 57.4%109 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 29c | 706.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.69 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…3ad0backed Sacramento State Hornets | 70c | 705.29$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sacramento State Hornets | 44c | 681.61$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.52 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Montana State Bobcats | 54c | 678.73$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.09 | 434 | 50%217 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9d24backed Montana State Bobcats | 60c | 664.85$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Montana State Bobcats | 46c | 629$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.2 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Sacramento State Hornets | 47c | 567.4$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.43 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Sacramento State Hornets | 49c | 501.91$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.28 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Montana State Bobcats | 53c | 444.66$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.43 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Montana State Bobcats | 66c | 394$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.04 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Montana State Bobcats | 31c | 390$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 253 | 25.3%64 W · 189 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 10c | 345.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 307$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Sacramento State Hornets | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Montana State Bobcats | 68c | 295.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Sacramento State Hornets | 32c | 264.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Sacramento State Hornets | 46c | 205$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 154.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…de8ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Montana State Bobcats | 36c | 147.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 192 | 37%71 W · 121 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Montana State Bobcats | 62c | 133$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Montana State Bobcats | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 68c | 118.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Montana State Bobcats | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 34c | 115.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sacramento State Hornets | 33c | 114$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sacramento State Hornets | 65c | 111.78$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Montana State Bobcats | 40c | 102.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Sacramento State Hornets | 47c | 101.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Montana State Bobcats | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Montana State Bobcats | 41c | 99.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Sacramento State Hornets | 34c | 91.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 66c | 91.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Montana State Bobcats | 23c | 87.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Montana State Bobcats | 51c | 73.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Sacramento State Hornets | 50c | 68.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Sacramento State Hornets | 42c | 56.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 80c | 54.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Montana State Bobcats | 44c | 53.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Montana State Bobcats | 56c | 48.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…b90cbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 31c | 42.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sacramento State Hornets | 34c | 40.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Montana State Bobcats | 67c | 34.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 92 | 64.1%59 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Sacramento State Hornets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fb…210ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 48c | 33.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Montana State Bobcats | 60c | 25.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 252 | 39.3%99 W · 153 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Sacramento State Hornetsthis page
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 154.5Over won
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 155.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.