Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc763018d573e39be5f55604f4c270fef2a387fd138aa2a448b9260f8ef9a3be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0ef…9199backed Under | 27c | 861.18$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc0…1934backed Over | 73c | 861.18$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 798.35$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.07 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Over | 55c | 598.62$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 385.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 63c | 330$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…32f9backed Under | 24c | 218.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8743backed Over | 76c | 218.95$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 19c | 189.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 148.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 19c | 142$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Under | 21c | 96.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 63c | 81.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 66 | 92.4%61 W · 5 L | +17.8wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 45c | 66.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 45c | 66.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 45c | 66.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 20c | 54.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 46c | 53.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…d64abacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…bdd1backed Over | 78c | 30.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 57c | 28.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 45c | 26.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.