Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d2a478c87a242ef5d3ea141239a3da0194f9f88de327311971094f4fa167729
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,719$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.23 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 52c | 1,035$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.22 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 41c | 900.69$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.7 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 60c | 839.95$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.33 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 45c | 539.2$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.67 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 45c | 373.7$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.54 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ac…c267backed Over | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 25c | 244.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 204.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 189.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 70c | 142.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 142.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 51c | 137.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 51c | 130.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 44c | 124.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 24c | 99.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 47c | 97.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 50c | 95.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 51c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 51c | 91.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 51c | 90.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 89.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 48c | 81.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 77.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 49c | 72.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 40c | 68.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Under | 47c | 63.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 80c | 62.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…38f6backed Under | 48c | 55.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 52c | 55.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 65c | 52.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under | 56c | 50.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 50c | 48.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 46c | 32.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Under | 47c | 31.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 56c | 18.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 77c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.