College Football · resolved market
Will Miami beat California?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccd94d600c65432fc09c7fdb73ca086b56703633d8d2c96b5f2aedc069c42b7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miamiof Miami, Cal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3168…6734backed Miami | 41c | 6,204$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,651.15 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Cal | 30c | 5,863$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.46 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Miami | 75c | 5,057$3,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.88 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Cal | 77c | 4,128$3,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.47 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Miami | 31c | 893.7$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.99 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Miami | 16c | 623.69$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.92 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Cal | 68c | 440$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Miami | 79c | 369.9$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Miami | 42c | 305$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Cal | 65c | 304.44$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Cal | 23c | 269.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…102bbacked Miami | 79c | 256.06$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Miami | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Miami | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Cal | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Cal | 44c | 56.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed Miami | 34c | 51.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Miami | 29c | 40.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Miami | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…c29abacked Miami | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1198backed Miami | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…5734backed Miami | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Miami beat California?this page
- Will Miami beat California by 11 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.