Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce498619a8786a73dca7373a2461a27406ef5280e83e25fbf00a02b85888e9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof Nottingham Forest FC, FC Porto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nottingham Forest FC | 36c | 893.7$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.67 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed FC Porto | 63c | 487.69$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.24 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Nottingham Forest FC | 37c | 389.01$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.08 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…501bbacked FC Porto | 63c | 356.17$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked FC Porto | 64c | 279.8$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nottingham Forest FC | 34c | 239.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.1 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc420…2badbacked FC Porto | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed FC Porto | 65c | 125$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed FC Porto | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…7653backed FC Porto | 63c | 51.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x557f…efa5backed Nottingham Forest FC | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcedc…1603backed FC Porto | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-0.5)this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.