Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x636dcd306f115a30c449a34aa826ca9cac12488f5b3725a2f6e9c7fb7403a419
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Over | 45c | 18,860$8,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,486.98 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 12,651$6,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,703.7 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 55c | 8,296$4,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,737.98 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed Under | 57c | 999.98$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 679.9$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.6 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Over | 45c | 515$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 45c | 480$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…42fabacked Over | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Over | 44c | 99.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…e72ebacked Over | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Under | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Over | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Under | 56c | 36.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 46c | 35.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Over | 45c | 33.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c6…401fbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Under | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 57c | 25.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-0.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.