Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccf5d1bbe255e5803ad78cd76d2af4165e7fe42218e16b3a038a90de6fb1ff55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 4,210$3,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.54 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 31c | 2,048$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.17 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 30c | 1,780$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.79 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 1,728$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.47 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,330$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 1,272$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.36 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 70c | 1,162$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 837.39$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.42 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5b…6e33backed Yes | 30c | 750$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 17c | 569.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 30c | 509.68$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 9c | 481.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 457.5$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 10c | 173.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 12c | 163.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a8…1036backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 28c | 57.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 68c | 55.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…1cd0backed No | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 72c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?this page
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-12-06?No won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.