Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x000375d74d3470faeb857fc0033a181749cf25e8f324a478df8f34c4ca36d54f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 23c | 8,026$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.69 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 73c | 7,950$5,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.23 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed No | 60c | 1,534$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.31 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 75c | 1,413$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.33 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 73c | 1,187$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.41 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 40c | 728$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.18 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 31c | 619.74$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.82 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 77c | 567.12$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Yes | 68c | 464.71$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 40c | 364.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.56 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 38c | 328.95$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.95 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 72c | 264.76$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 15c | 230.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Yes | 37c | 166.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…5431backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 43c | 109.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…1a78backed No | 37c | 106.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 40c | 98.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 49c | 95.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 38c | 78.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked No | 35c | 72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked No | 33c | 58.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 63c | 44.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 63c | 37.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…1bf5backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 70c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-12-06?No won
- Will Toulouse FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.