Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd1710f73242f168eb990ab667670bde33569914494fca20351f3018f7a46be5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 50c | 1,067$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.35 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked No | 49c | 449.69$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.35 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…3d13backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…d48cbacked Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…670cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de9…67d1backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…c395backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked No | 33c | 59.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x676a…f80abacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec7…fd3dbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3e…e0bbbacked Yes | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…236ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…cd3bbacked Yes | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…a921backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico to win the second half?this page
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.