South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd57fd054f518057f8e6d21c6d3af460699999dd95b9566f62bbcbc2968bb76c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,626 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 2c | 866.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 348.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.98 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…74d1backed Over | 49c | 189.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…b411backed Over | 49c | 186.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd4…4613backed Under | 51c | 185$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642a…050cbacked Under | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 46c | 177.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…4baebacked Over | 50c | 177$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3db…d368backed Under | 50c | 177$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e8…645ebacked Over | 50c | 173.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…8178backed Under | 51c | 173$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff8f…8638backed Under | 51c | 171$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…b686backed Under | 51c | 169.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…c4fbbacked Over | 49c | 169.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29a…cb03backed Over | 50c | 167.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6f…3a83backed Under | 50c | 162$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6b89backed Over | 50c | 155.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967a…7576backed Over | 49c | 153.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…a69ebacked Over | 50c | 151.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…3edebacked Under | 50c | 150.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…fc95backed Over | 50c | 148.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…f114backed Over | 50c | 147.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fd…7ab7backed Under | 50c | 147.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…d8b3backed Under | 50c | 146$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…4481backed Under | 50c | 142$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…0e7fbacked Under | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…fb51backed Over | 49c | 136.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…6e79backed Over | 50c | 134.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…7410backed Under | 51c | 133$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd010…57adbacked Under | 50c | 132.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…6945backed Under | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…eac9backed Over | 50c | 127.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Under | 49c | 125.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…b4c7backed Over | 50c | 121.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 49c | 113.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 55c | 83.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…4b30backed Over | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 60.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…0c02backed Over | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 49.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Over | 51c | 47.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Under | 50c | 35.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 31.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 18.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.