Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Norwich City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdae97f85e74803cad2310987d0aa07e36420eded44a4518dd11f05d9b3605f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Derby County FCof Norwich City FC, Derby County FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Norwich City FC | 13c | 948.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Norwich City FC | 17c | 799.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Derby County FC | 72c | 481.55$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Derby County FC | 73c | 471.14$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.28 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Derby County FC | 79c | 325.84$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Norwich City FC | 36c | 165.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Norwich City FC | 23c | 92.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Norwich City FC | 26c | 80.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Norwich City FC | 25c | 43.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Derby County FC | 72c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Norwich City FC (-1.5)this page
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Norwich City FC (-2.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.