Premier League · resolved market
Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3027b48ff36f700606b2bb43e39b252c59bb955df1d8b8f48237250cc2289160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 33c | 1,691$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.56 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,575$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.71 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 1,194$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 42c | 1,157$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 68c | 1,004$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.91 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 52c | 878.92$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.34 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 52c | 747.08$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.6 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 48c | 684.62$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.62 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 48c | 669.23$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.23 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 67c | 544.52$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 52c | 448.25$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.16 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 43c | 375.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.5 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 50c | 258.11$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 208.23$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 59c | 146.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 43c | 131.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 69c | 127.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 105 | 79%83 W · 22 L | +22.7wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 121.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 47c | 103.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 157 | 38.9%61 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 45c | 65.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 67c | 42.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Under | 68c | 36.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 37c | 34.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 50c | 32.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 47c | 26.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 26.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Norwich City FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
- Spread: Norwich City FC (-2.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.