College Football · resolved market
Spread: Duke (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc735d8a5c6b925b6ef9d9d766b242c3a4d97f65395b199dc2ea3a9bfbe9741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginiaof Duke, Virginia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Duke | 52c | 10,722$5,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,575.45 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Virginia | 48c | 6,666$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.32 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Virginia | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…d3e6backed Virginia | 50c | 1,990$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke | 50c | 1,437$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.9 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia | 52c | 996$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.1 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…b9d1backed Duke | 48c | 996$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Duke | 49c | 898.43$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.23 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Virginia | 50c | 858$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.53 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Duke | 51c | 535.11$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.91 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Virginia | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Duke | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Duke | 52c | 242.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Duke | 49c | 235$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Virginia | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Virginia | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Virginia | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Virginia | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Virginia | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke (-4.5)this page
- O/U 58.5Under won
- Spread: Duke (-3.5)Virginia won
- Spread: Duke (-5.5)Virginia won
- Spread: Duke (-6.5)Virginia won
- Virginia vs. DukeVirginia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.