South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce28921c63df6d81d9d3b9a35c251ba89f00f986f89c8ddfaf00a3e22879c9dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 60c | 1,914$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.84 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 1c | 907.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 629.63$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.99 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Over | 43c | 464$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 55c | 443.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 39c | 251.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.28 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 32c | 249.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 249.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Over | 44c | 129.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 51c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…7f3dbacked Over | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 59c | 73.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 38c | 60.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…3a24backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 38.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 34.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…3a00backed Under | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…ab38backed Over | 45c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Over | 73c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.