South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfdf392bec9eb64af94c1c3254280281f9c7ad02534d0afb29158bcf7505ca6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 3c | 14,681$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.93 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 3,826$3,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.08 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 4c | 2,002$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 77c | 1,921$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.52 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…e2b8backed Over | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 37c | 767.66$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.24 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…f219backed Over | 36c | 418.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 386.35$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 57c | 333.33$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Over | 52c | 230.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 74c | 205.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 57c | 191.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…b5a6backed Under | 65c | 150.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 64c | 110.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 31c | 97.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 92.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 90.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0250…278ebacked Under | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 60c | 56.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 62c | 42.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 60c | 41.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 64c | 24.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 65c | 19.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.