MLB · resolved market
Blue Jays vs. Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce360f359f6f752c1df7e071646ce71f68760b32127145641504dfafa70dcb86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 5,244$2,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,464.68 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…ff17backed Over | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 2,680$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.58 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 50c | 1,525$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.04 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 51c | 1,146$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.45 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 47c | 853.7$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.24 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 714.01$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.15 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 48c | 225$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…213ebacked Under | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Over | 50c | 202$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 48c | 22.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…1698backed Over | 52c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b86ebacked Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jays vs. Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Blue Jays vs. RaysBlue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.