NHL · resolved market
KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Traktor
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xced845b52f218fe426847d57a2dbe8caa209aa71123762224f4b93f22aca17ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ak Bars Kazanof Ak Bars Kazan, Traktor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 999.94$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.29 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Traktor | 40c | 775.8$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d8…b669backed Traktor | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…3439backed Traktor | 40c | 540$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…4468backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 410$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x719e…0a21backed Traktor | 40c | 410$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a3…8edabacked Traktor | 40c | 370$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…8eaebacked Traktor | 40c | 320$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…16a2backed Traktor | 41c | 320$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Traktor | 39c | 269.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…e9f9backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…bde0backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…efbebacked Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 210$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…a1cfbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 59c | 176$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…2c16backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…e453backed Ak Bars Kazan | 59c | 144$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…1061backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…1cb8backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…4fd0backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc879…30a4backed Traktor | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Traktor | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.