Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4127ee3e086f6bf1266b4f86ce1737d2cd59453ea1e3de1ca1b5a84a4dd410
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 686.61$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.52 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 20c | 671.38$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.58 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 55c | 527.95$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.09 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…358bbacked Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 40c | 368.08$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 299.95$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.97 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 60c | 245$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 128$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 38c | 109.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 77c | 98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 14.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 2.5this page
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad (-1.5)MH Hapoel Tel Aviv won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.