Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x787c793140c30488a3c8d3df6c4686f818bd9839846853510ad173dc179673f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 40c | 5,186$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.98 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.98 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 66c | 1,569$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.37 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 70c | 684.63$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.19 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -11.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 543.84$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.71 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 543.23$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.41 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 7c | 343$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 785 | 44.8%352 W · 433 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…0d9cbacked Over | 78c | 248.86$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 33c | 244.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 639 | 57.1%365 W · 274 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 61c | 194.31$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 10c | 143$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 68c | 122.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 64c | 111$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 65c | 79.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Under | 41c | 63.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…7fdbbacked Under | 44c | 58.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 66c | 55.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…3546backed Over | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Under | 38c | 36.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 61c | 34.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 76c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 71c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 1.5this page
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad (-1.5)MH Hapoel Tel Aviv won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.