Cricket · resolved market
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Italy vs USA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5432f4a6f8d8f1293a81ae6b0bd03a0c2ce909b22c12f4023fff70d5a6b7e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof Italy, USA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Italy | 17c | 1,390$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.08 | 569 | 37.1%211 W · 358 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Italy | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Italy | 11c | 772.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…d9cfbacked Italy | 28c | 682.87$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.64 | 228 | 43.9%100 W · 128 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed USA | 72c | 491.6$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.24 | 147 | 30.6%45 W · 102 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Italy | 28c | 313.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 679 | 31.4%213 W · 466 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Italy | 8c | 303.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed USA | 66c | 210.22$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…820fbacked Italy | 13c | 155.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 187 | 29.4%55 W · 132 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed USA | 72c | 137.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 654 | 51.1%334 W · 320 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171d…49a8backed Italy | 10c | 132.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed USA | 79c | 112.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 310 | 27.4%85 W · 225 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa141…6744backed Italy | 32c | 106.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed USA | 63c | 103.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Italy | 11c | 100.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Italy | 33c | 99.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…913fbacked USA | 65c | 99.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 290 | 51.7%150 W · 140 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…6984backed USA | 67c | 98.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked USA | 75c | 90.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…26eebacked USA | 66c | 85.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 470 | 61.5%289 W · 181 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Italy | 36c | 84.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f3…6c94backed Italy | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…bd88backed USA | 66c | 53.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Italy | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 176 | 42%74 W · 102 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed USA | 65c | 39.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed USA | 77c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 419 | 47.5%199 W · 220 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed USA | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…4adfbacked USA | 74c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.