Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf7d3043626a4dfff781c93c3f8e1f0f9b669a79a4c04efa770d04c71238de61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,159 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cd9…c2e2backed No | 0c | 4,170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +224.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 14c | 330.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 231.02$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 90.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 49.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 49.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d8…9121backed Yes | 72c | 46.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 42.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 33c | 41.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 39c | 36.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 29c | 35.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 43c | 34.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…77b0backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 57c | 19.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 67c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.