Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf964cd6fe1b2105d6001863c642592addb68e69ea0685735e8b996b6bf3c772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cee…3f91backed Yes | 20c | 483.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 418.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…aadcbacked Yes | 29c | 398.35$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 21c | 344.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 312.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf032…2b49backed Yes | 8c | 311.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 278.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 180.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 177.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 165$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 157$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 152.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 14c | 143.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 17c | 131.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 12c | 130.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Yes | 10c | 129.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 129.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 112.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 29c | 108.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 21c | 102.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 13c | 98.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 21c | 89.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 89.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 11c | 88.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 68.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 60.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 18c | 59.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 18c | 56.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 51.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 50.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 70c | 24.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849d…29ecbacked No | 79c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or higher on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.